Estimating race finish time: Using the "Magic Mile" method

 

After having worked with over 200,000 runners over 30 years and compiling hundreds of performances, Jeff Galloway has compiled a predication formula based on a one mile time trial.

The Magic Mile is a unique tool to help runners and walkers determine realistic goals for their race finish time. Runners and walkers who regularly incorporate the Magic Mile into their training find that their progress typically improves as they get stronger and faster.

Guidelines for running the Magic Mile

1. Go to a track or other accurately measured one-mile course.
2. Warm up by running a slow, easy one mile
3. Run the Magic Mile a little harder than your normal pace. Follow your normal run/walk ratio, or walk 30 to 45 seconds at each quarter mile, or walk the entire distance.
4. Don’t run or walk all-out from the start.  Ease into pace after the first half mile or 2 laps.
5. Cool down by walking for 5 minutes after the time trial and then continue with your mileage for that day.

Don’t use a treadmill because they tend to be notoriously uncalibrated, and often show farther and faster distance than was actually run or walk.

Use the formula provided below to see what time is predicated in the goal race.

How hard should the Magic Mile be run or walked?

• Run or walk the first  quarter mile slightly slower than you think you can average for the entire mile. Take a short walk break.
• If you aren’t huffing and puffing you can pick up the pace a bit on the second lap. Most benefit from taking a walk break after the second lap, if they haven’t already done so.
• On the last lap it is ok to be breathing hard. When you finish, you should feel like you couldn’t run or walk more than half a lap further at that pace (if that).

Use your Magic Mile pace to estimate your finish time on longer distances

5K—Take one-mile time and add 33 seconds

10K—Take one-mile time and multiply by 1.1

Half Marathon—Take the one-mile time and multiply by 1.2

Marathon—Take the one-mile time and multiply by 1.

Predicting race performance

• Take your last 4 Magic Mile time trials (We’ll do this several more times during our training season)
• Eliminate the slowest time trial
• Average the other three
• Use the prediction formula for your race
• Adjust for heat and humidity; slow down by 30 seconds a mile for every 5 degree temperature increase above 60 degrees.

Excerpts from Galloway Training Programs and jeffgalloway.com